Wednesday, December 24, 2014

A Christmas Miracle

Despite having only won 1 out of 3 games, we are ranked in the middle of top 25 of Metrowest 8th grade girls teams.

Teams are ranked based upon the outcomes of games, the game location -- home/road/neutral -- and the quality of opponents. Only D1 and D2 teams are ranked above us at the moment and some of each are ranked below us.

To see us ranked in the top 25 while it lasts got to
http://www.metrowestbball.com/

and select the "Top 25" tab.

I do have a plan to get us back on track. We are changing our press a little bit by adding trapping,  working on shooting every practice, working on ball security every practice, will be more anal about getting offensive rebounds and will stress drive to the basket more.
Based on statistical analyses, the four most important keys for team success in basketball:

    Shoot a high field goal percentage.
    Do not commit turnovers.
    Get offensive rebounds.
    Get to the foul line frequently.

Teams that consistently win basketball games do at least three of these things well. If a team doesn't shoot well, it better do the other three things very well. Obviously, these keys could also be stated from the defensive perspective, i.e., prevent easy baskets, cause turnovers, do not give up offensive rebounds, do not foul, etc. At our level of basketball, offensive skills are more rare than defensive skills. We have played against two very good defensive teams. I am not ready to give up on teaching our players to play man to man the right way because that is what they will need to be able to do in high school and beyond.

Offensive rebounding can make up for a poor shooting percentage, particularly as shots off of offensive rebounds generally are more likely to result in scores than initial field goal attempts. (This also emphasizes how important it is for the defense to box out). If missed shots result in defensive rebounds by us, then we have potential fast breaks. Defensive rebounds are to a large extent the result of good defense making the offense shoot a low field goal percentage. As our defense gets better, we will get more and more of them.

Turnovers are important because a team cannot even shoot, never mind score, if it turns over the ball during a possession. We want to force turnovers with out fouling.

It is more important for teams to get to the foul line frequently than it is for them to hit a high percentage of their foul shots. Perhaps, this is because lots of foul shots means the other team's starters are in foul trouble. So getting fouled and shooting lots of foul shots is a key to success.

Good offensive teams have both inside and outside scoring. A team does not have to have a great point guard or a great center to score efficiently. However, it does have to pass well. Most offensively successful teams have a high percentage of assists on their scores. Assists lead to higher quality shots, a higher shooting percentage and better team chemistry.

Underdogs, like us, should adopt a "risky" strategy. A risky strategy is one that changes the dynamics of how the game would normally go. Examples of risky strategies  that we do are pressing, attempting many three point shots, slowing down the pace of the game (which we do sometimes), sending guards to the boards to rebound as well as releasing the guards on defense for a potential fast break, fronting the post, and playing oversized or undersized lineups. At some point in the season you will see up playing a zone as a surprise late in the game.  The slow down strategy works by reducing the number of possessions each team has. This reduces the better team's advantages and makes the outcome more variable. Similarly, the other risky strategies make results more variable in different ways.

On offense  we want players to:

    Shoot a high field goal percentage or help teammates shoot a high percentage through assists and playmaking.
    Avoid turnovers.
    Get offensive rebounds.
    Draw fouls.

At the defensive end, the player should:

    Make offensive players take low percentage shots.
    Cause turnovers.
    Box out and prevent offensive rebounds.
    Avoid fouls.

Team chemistry is very important. Chemistry has two parts: having a team that has well-balanced skills and having players who are willing to contribute to the team's good balance. If a team already has several good shooters, it may need more ball-handling and defensive skills, otherwise, it will have too many turnovers and give up too many points. On the other hand, if a team dribbles and defends well, but cannot put the ball in the basket, it need shooters. Our team is lacking defense and ball handling. The second part of chemistry, players with good attitude, is MOST important but very difficult to quantify. Let's just say that one knows it when one sees it. For some of our player it is a work in progress.

Merry Christmas.

Robin

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